Don't Miss Out! Used Car Price Drop Periods and 2026 Market Trends | 5 Points to Identify the Best Time to Buy

"I think it's about time to replace my car" "Maybe I'll go with a used car for my first vehicle"

If you're thinking that way, hold on a moment. When buying a used car, many people pay attention to the model, year, and mileage. However, what's surprisingly often overlooked is the timing issue of "when to buy."

In fact, the timing of when you purchase a used car can create a price difference of $700 to $2,100 for the same model and year. This is quite a significant amount. With $2,100, you could enhance your options with a car navigation system or dash cam, or even apply it toward vehicle inspection costs or insurance premiums.

I myself, when I previously purchased a used car, happened to buy during a period when prices tend to drop, which allowed me to choose a grade one rank higher than my initial budget. Conversely, a friend of mine purchased in March because they "needed it right away," and after researching the market prices later, regretted it saying "I should have waited a bit longer."

The used car market in 2026 is showing somewhat different trends than before. Various factors are intertwined, including the impact of the global shift to EVs (electric vehicles), the resolution of semiconductor shortages, and the expansion of market size. By understanding these changes, you can make smarter purchasing decisions.

In this article, we will explain 5 key points to help you identify when used car prices drop, in the most straightforward way possible. We've made an effort to avoid technical jargon as much as possible, so even first-time used car buyers can easily understand.

If you're thinking "I don't want to make a bad purchase" or "I want to buy as affordably as possible," please stay with us until the end. You'll surely find information that will help you choose a used car.

First, let's understand the basic mechanism of why used car prices rise and fall. Knowing this will help you develop an eye for identifying when prices are likely to drop.

The used car market, just like supermarket vegetables or the stock market, has prices determined by the balance of supply and demand.

In a situation where "there are many people who want it, but few cars being sold," prices will rise. Conversely, in a situation where "there are many cars for sale, but few people who want to buy," prices will fall. It's a very simple principle, isn't it?

Let me give you a specific example. Every year in March, people starting new lives all begin searching for cars at once. Students moving to rural areas for university, new members of society who need a car for commuting, families who need a car due to a job transfer—for various reasons, there's a sudden surge of people who want a car right away.

However, used car inventory doesn't increase suddenly. The number of cars that dealerships have doesn't change that easily. As a result, demand greatly exceeds supply, and prices tend to rise.

On the other hand, during the summer Obon period and January after the New Year holidays, the number of people looking to buy cars decreases. It's a hassle to go out and look at cars in the heat, and after spending money during the year-end and New Year holidays, people tend to tighten their purse strings. During these periods, dealerships end up holding inventory, so they try to sell it off even if it means lowering prices.

Understanding the waves of supply and demand balance is the first step to smart shopping.

A car begins to lose value the moment it is purchased. This phenomenon is called "depreciation," and it is unavoidable no matter how carefully you drive it.

Generally speaking, it's said that a new car loses about 20-30% of its value within the first year of purchase. This means that a car bought for 5 million yen would be worth approximately 3.5 to 4 million yen after one year. After that, the value continues to decrease by about 10-15% annually.

However, this depreciation rate varies significantly depending on the vehicle model.

For example, popular vehicle models like the Toyota Land Cruiser and Jimny are known for maintaining their value even after many years. Conversely, luxury imported cars and unpopular models tend to have higher depreciation rates due to their high new car prices.

Additionally, model changes have a significant impact on pricing. When a new model is announced, the used car prices of older models can drop dramatically. This is because many people think, "If I'm going to buy one anyway, I'd prefer the newer design."

Conversely, right after a model change is a great opportunity to pick up a used car of the previous model at a lower price. For those who aren't particular about appearance or who prefer the design of the older model, this is an ideal time to buy.

Mileage is also an important factor that affects the price of a used car.

Generally, around 10,000 kilometers per year is considered the "standard mileage." For a 5-year-old car, around 50,000 kilometers is typical, and for a 10-year-old car, around 100,000 kilometers is the guideline.

If the mileage is less than this standard, the vehicle is considered to be in "good condition" and the price will be higher; if the mileage is more, it is considered to have been "well-used" and the price will be lower.

However, you also need to be careful with cars that have too few miles on them. Vehicles that haven't been driven much may have issues with the engine or battery condition. Cars are easier to maintain in good condition when they're driven regularly.

Now, here's the main point. There are clearly defined "periods when used cars become cheaper" and "periods when they become more expensive." Just knowing these patterns can significantly increase your chances of making a great purchase.

We'll introduce the times when used cars tend to be cheapest in ranking format.

1st Place: January to February

Throughout the year, this is the period when used cars tend to be the cheapest.

There are several reasons for this. First, many people's wallets are light after holiday spending at the end and beginning of the year, making it a time when they're less inclined to buy a car. Also, it's a hassle to go out and look at cars in the cold weather.

Furthermore, many used car dealerships have their fiscal year-end in March. With the desire to adjust inventory and boost sales figures before the fiscal year closes, they become more willing to negotiate on prices.

Some people might think, "Wouldn't it be better to wait for the fiscal year-end sale in March?" It's true that campaigns branded as "fiscal year-end sales" are often held in March. However, in reality, March sees an increase in buyers due to new life demand, so prices often don't drop as much as you might expect.

Rather, negotiating in January or February before the fiscal year-end with "If you decide this month, we can offer this price" is more likely to result in favorable terms.

2nd Place: July to August

The period after the summer bonus shopping season has settled down is also a good time to target.

From June to mid-July, right after bonuses are paid out, there are many people thinking "I'll buy a car with my bonus," so demand increases. However, from late July through August, after that wave passes, demand quickly settles down.

Additionally, during the hot summer months, many people avoid going out, which leads to a decrease in the number of customers visiting used car dealerships. Many people also go back to their hometowns during the Obon holiday period.

As retailers, they tend to lower prices to attract customers in order to secure sales even when foot traffic is low. Being able to negotiate leisurely in an air-conditioned store may also be an advantage during this period.

3rd Place: November

November, being an adjustment period before the year-end shopping season, is surprisingly a hidden gem.

In December, there's a surge in last-minute demand from customers saying, "I want my car delivered before the end of the year." More people want to drive their new car home for the New Year holidays or complete their vehicle purchase before the year changes.

Anticipating this demand, many retailers organize their inventory during November. As a result, significant price reductions are sometimes implemented.

Additionally, November falls between the interim fiscal closing (September) and the final fiscal closing (March), making it a relatively relaxed period for dealerships. There's a high likelihood they'll have time to engage in thorough negotiations with you.

On the other hand, let's also understand the periods when used cars tend to be more expensive. If you purchase during these times, the same car may cost about 5-15% more.

March: The highest period of the year

March is the time when used cars are most expensive, as it coincides with both new lifestyle needs and the fiscal year-end period.

People preparing for new phases of life—college enrollment, starting a job, job transfers—all begin looking for cars at once. Dealerships know that "vehicles will sell during this period even at slightly higher prices," so they tend to be less willing to negotiate discounts.

It's not uncommon to find that when you buy something in March expecting it to be cheaper during a fiscal year-end sale, it's actually more expensive than at other times of the year.

September: Interim Settlement Period

While not as much as March, September is also a period when demand increases.

Since many companies have their interim financial settlements in September, dealerships also try to boost their sales. Additionally, more people look to replace their cars in preparation for the fall leisure season.

December: Year-End Rush Demand

December, when demand concentrates around the desire to "take delivery within the year," is also a period when prices tend to be higher.

Especially in late December, considering the number of days until vehicle delivery, options become limited, which tends to create a situation where "even if it's somewhat expensive, this is the only car available."

To roughly summarize the price fluctuations over the one-year period, they are as follows:

Of course, this is just a general trend. It can vary depending on the vehicle model, region, and economic conditions of that year, so please consider this as a reference only.

The used car market in 2026 is showing somewhat different trends than before. By understanding the latest market conditions, you'll be able to make more accurate decisions.

The global used car market continues to grow steadily.

The market size in 2024 was approximately $43.3 billion USD (approximately ¥6.5 trillion), and is projected to reach **approximately $83 billion USD (approximately ¥12.5 trillion)** by 2030. With an average annual growth rate of 11.34%, it demonstrates very robust growth.

There are several factors behind this growth.

First, there's the surge in new car prices. Due to semiconductor shortages and rising raw material costs, new car prices have been increasing year after year. The segment of buyers saying "new cars are too expensive and out of reach" has been flowing into the used car market.

Next is the improvement in used car quality. Recent vehicles have high durability, and there are an increasing number of cars that can run without problems even after exceeding 10 years or 100,000 kilometers. The growing number of people who think "a used car is good enough" is also thanks to this quality improvement.

Additionally, the proliferation of online sales has contributed to market expansion. Consumers can now compare and evaluate used cars from across the country from the comfort of their homes, lowering the barrier to purchase.

The year 2026 is also called the "EV shift correction period."

Until just a few years ago, the prevailing prediction was that "by 2030, all cars around the world will be EVs." Governments in various countries announced bans on gasoline vehicle sales, and automakers were rushing to transition to EVs.

However, that prediction has now been significantly revised.

It has become clear that there are still many challenges to the widespread adoption of EVs, including the development of charging infrastructure, reduction of battery costs, and extension of driving range. Additionally, practical issues have been pointed out, such as battery performance degradation in cold climates.

How is this "EV shift slowdown" affecting the used car market?

Demand for gasoline and hybrid vehicles remains high

With the slowdown in the transition to EVs, demand for traditional gasoline and hybrid vehicles remains strong. Many people think "It's too early for EVs" or "Hybrids are good enough."

For this reason, popular hybrid vehicles (Prius, Aqua, etc.) maintain high values even in the used car market. There has been no extreme price collapse.

The used EV market is also becoming more active

Meanwhile, the used EV market is also steadily growing. In February 2026, data showed that used EV transaction volumes in the UK reached record highs.

While new EVs are expensive, there are now more used models available at affordable prices. It seems that more people who are "interested in EVs but hesitant to buy new" are choosing used EVs.

In 2026, numerous new car models are being released.

Particularly in the EV sector, notable models such as the Kia EV2, Audi A6 e-tron, and BMW iX3 are being released one after another. Additionally, new hybrid vehicles are being launched from Toyota and Honda.

When a new model is released, the price of used cars from the previous model tends to decrease.

This is because many people think, "If I'm going to buy one anyway, I'd rather get the newer design." This is especially true for full model changes (major design overhauls), where the price drop for older models becomes particularly pronounced.

Conversely, this is also an opportunity to get older models at a lower price.

If you say "I don't care about appearance" or "I prefer the design of the older model," why not try targeting the period right after a model change?

In 2026, the weak yen trend continues. This is also affecting the used car market.

Imported used cars remain at high prices

Due to the weak yen, used car prices for imported vehicles (such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi) remain high. This is because the cost of sourcing cars from overseas has increased.

If you're looking for a used imported car, it might be better to wait for a time when the yen appreciates or consider domestic cars as well.

Domestic used cars are relatively stable

On the other hand, domestic car used car prices remain relatively stable. While exports overseas have increased thanks to the weak yen, the impact on the domestic market has been limited.

Not all cars depreciate at the same rate. Depreciation patterns vary significantly depending on the make and type of vehicle.

The following types of vehicles tend to depreciate relatively quickly.

Luxury Imported Vehicles

Luxury imported cars such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi have high depreciation rates proportional to their expensive new car prices.

For example, looking at BMW valuation records, the 3 Series ranges from 4.7 million yen to 30,000 yen, and the X1 ranges from 4.9 million yen to 30,000 yen, showing extremely large price differences depending on condition. It's not uncommon for cars that cost over 5 million yen new to be worth less than 1 million yen just a few years later.

これは、高級輸入車を「お得に買いたい」という方にとってはチャンスです。新車では手が届かなかった憧れの車が、中古なら現実的な価格で手に入る可能性があります。

However, keep in mind that imported vehicles tend to have higher maintenance costs (parts, repairs, etc.), so factor in these post-purchase expenses.

Unpopular Colors and Special Specification Vehicles

Classic colors such as white, black, and silver are highly popular and tend to maintain their prices well. On the other hand, distinctive colors like pink, yellow, and purple have limited demand and are more likely to decrease in value.

If you don't mind the color, you may be able to purchase the same model at a lower price by targeting unpopular colors.

Additionally, special specifications (sports grades, limited edition models, etc.) are popular among enthusiasts, but due to limited general demand, they tend to depreciate more quickly.

Fuel-inefficient large vehicles

With gasoline prices remaining high, large vehicles with poor fuel efficiency tend to be avoided.

Large-displacement sedans and fuel-inefficient SUVs tend to depreciate more quickly because they are avoided by buyers who are concerned about maintenance costs.

For those who say "I don't care about fuel economy" or "I like big cars," this might be a good option to consider.

Conversely, the following types of vehicles tend to hold their value well.

Light Cars & Compact Cars

Kei cars and compact cars consistently maintain stable prices due to their constant high demand.

The reasons for their popularity include many practical advantages such as low maintenance costs, excellent maneuverability, and ease of parking. In particular, popular models like the N-BOX, Tanto, and Wagon R maintain high resale values in the used car market.

From the perspective of "wanting to buy cheaply," compact cars may feel expensive. However, since they have a high potential to sell for good prices when you eventually sell them, they can be considered a smart choice when you think about the total cost.

Hybrid Vehicles

Hybrid vehicles, represented by the Prius and Aqua, are also vehicle models with high resale value.

Its fuel efficiency performance is highly valued, with stable demand from those looking to save on gasoline costs. Additionally, with growing environmental awareness, it is also popular among those who want to drive an eco-friendly vehicle.

Popular SUV

Popular SUVs such as the Harrier, RAV4, and CX-5 are also vehicle models that tend to hold their value well.

Demand from families remains stable, and with the influence of the outdoor boom, SUV popularity shows no signs of waning.

So, how can you find a "good deal" vehicle? Here are some key points to consider.

Be Conscious of Resale Value

If you're considering selling in the future, it's recommended to choose a vehicle model with high resale value.

4WD models and popular trims are advantageous when selling in the future. In particular, since there is high demand for 4WD in snowy regions, 4WD models tend to maintain their value nationwide.

Target Model Change Timing

As mentioned earlier, the previous generation model drops in price immediately after a model change.

If you're someone who thinks "I don't mind if it's not the latest model," try targeting this timing. You might be able to buy a higher grade within the same budget.

Look for unpopular but capable vehicle models

There are surprisingly many car models that may be unpopular with the general public, but when you actually drive them, you realize "this is a good car."

For example, the Mazda Atenza (now MAZDA6) is highly praised for its driving performance and interior quality, but its resale value remains modest compared to Toyota or Honda due to lower brand recognition. Finding such 'hidden gems' can lead to an exceptionally good deal.

The price of used cars varies greatly depending on where you buy them. It's important to understand the characteristics of each purchasing channel.

These are used car dealerships affiliated with manufacturers such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. They are often sold as "certified pre-owned vehicles."

Benefits

Disadvantages

It's recommended for those who think "I want to buy with peace of mind, even if it costs a bit more." Especially for those who aren't knowledgeable about cars or are purchasing a used car for the first time, a dealer-affiliated used car store is a safe choice.

These are major used car chains such as Gulliver, Big Motor (now WECARS), and NEXTAGE.

Benefits

Disadvantages

By using used car information websites like CarSensor and Goo-net, you can easily compare prices from multiple dealers. The advantage is that competitive market forces help ensure you can purchase at a fair price.

This is a so-called "local used car dealership" that has been operating in the community for many years.

Benefits

Disadvantages

If you can find a trustworthy shop, you can maintain a long-term relationship. It's a good idea to choose based on referrals from acquaintances or reviews on word-of-mouth websites.

These are used car auction agency services and private sales through platforms like Mercari and Yahoo Auctions.

Benefits

Disadvantages

While it can be an option for those knowledgeable about cars or willing to take risks to buy cheaper, it is not highly recommended for beginners.

Recently, there has been an increase in online used car sales services that can be completed entirely online.

On platforms like Rakuten Car, Carsensor.net, and Goo-net, you can search and compare used cars from across the country from the comfort of your home. Some services even allow you to complete the entire contract online and have the vehicle delivered directly to your doorstep.

Benefits

Disadvantages

As a trend in 2026, the number of users utilizing online sales is on the rise. However, we recommend checking the actual vehicle before purchase if possible.

Finally, let me introduce some negotiation techniques you can use when making an actual purchase. Just knowing a few tips can lead to savings of tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand yen.

Timing is Important

The most important thing in price negotiation is timing.

The end of the month or fiscal period is when dealerships are thinking "we need to make our numbers this month." If you show an attitude of "I'll decide today" during this time, they'll be more likely to give you a discount.

Conversely, at the beginning of the month or during busy periods (such as March), dealerships tend to be less willing to negotiate prices since they have more flexibility.

Research market data in advance

Market data becomes a powerful negotiation tool.

Check car listing sites like Carsensor and Goo-net to research how much cars with the same model, year, and mileage are being sold for. If you can present specific numbers saying "This was the price at other stores," negotiations will proceed smoothly.

However, lying is not acceptable. It is important to honestly convey information that you have actually researched.

Get quotes from multiple stores

It would be a waste to make a decision based on just one store.

Get quotes from at least 2-3 stores and compare them. By saying "Store A offered this price," you can leverage competitive awareness and make it easier to negotiate a discount.

Dangle the prospect of immediate decision

The attitude of "I'll decide today" or "I'll make an immediate decision at this price" is extremely effective in negotiations.

For dealerships, having a customer say "I'll think about it" and leave is the most troublesome situation. Because they don't want to lose the customer right in front of them, they become more willing to offer discounts.

However, if the conditions are not truly satisfactory to you, there is no need to make an immediate decision.

If you have a vehicle you currently own, you can effectively achieve a price reduction by strategically utilizing trade-in or buyout options.

How to Maximize Your Trade-In Value

While it's common to trade in your vehicle at the dealership where you're purchasing a used car, this isn't necessarily always the best option.

When you request an appraisal from a specialized buyback store, you may receive a higher price than a trade-in. It's recommended to get appraisals from multiple buyback stores and sell to the store that offers the highest price.

Utilizing Bulk Appraisal Services

By using comprehensive quote services like Carsensor or Zubat Car Purchase Comparison, you can obtain estimates from multiple dealers at once.

You can get the best price without any hassle, so please feel free to use this service.

Not only the vehicle base price, but also additional fees are negotiable.

When purchasing a used car, various costs are incurred in addition to the vehicle's base price. Some of these costs can be reduced.

Delivery Fee

This is the cost for having it delivered to your home. If you pick it up at the store yourself, it is often free.

Coating Cost

You may be offered body coating, but if you don't need it, it's perfectly fine to decline. If you use commercially available coating products yourself, it will only cost a few thousand yen.

Extended Warranty Cost

You may be offered paid extended warranties, but whether you really need one depends on the condition of the vehicle and how you use it. If the car is relatively new with low mileage, it's often unnecessary.

Other Options

You may be offered optional equipment such as ETC or dash cams, but it's often cheaper to install them yourself.

By reviewing these alone, you may be able to reduce the total cost by around $500 to $1,000. When you receive a quote, check each item one by one.

Some of you who have read this far may be wondering, "So should I buy now? Or should I wait?"

Finally, I will share the criteria for determining the timing of your purchase.

In the following cases, you may purchase immediately.

In cases of high urgency

If your current car breaks down, gets totaled in an accident, or you need a vehicle immediately for any reason, you don't have the luxury of waiting for the right timing. Even if it costs a bit more, buying when you need it is the right decision.

When your target vehicle model is at its price reduction peak

If the vehicle model you're targeting happens to fall during periods when prices tend to drop (January-February, July-August, November), it's best not to miss the opportunity.

If you find a car with good conditions

Used cars are one-of-a-kind items. If you find a car in good condition (low mileage, good condition, desired grade/color, etc.), it may be sold while you're still deciding.

When you find a car that makes you think "This is it!", it's important to make a decision without being too particular about timing.

Interest Rate Discount Campaign Now Available

If purchasing with a loan, you can reduce the total payment amount by taking advantage of preferential interest rate campaigns. A difference of just 1% in interest rates can result in a difference of tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand yen.

In the following cases, it might be better to wait a little longer.

Just Before the New Model Announcement

If a new model of the vehicle you're targeting is scheduled to be released soon, it's better to wait. After the new model is announced, the price of used older models is likely to drop.

When market prices are surging

During high-demand periods such as March and September, prices tend to increase. If you're not in a rush, we recommend waiting until demand subsides.

If you have budget flexibility

If you don't need a car immediately and have some flexibility in your budget, taking your time to search carefully increases the likelihood of finding a vehicle with better conditions.

Finally, here is a summary of items you should check before making your purchase decision.

If all items are checked, you should be able to proceed with the purchase with confidence.

We answer frequently asked questions regarding used car purchases.

A: It is said that 3-5 year old vehicles offer the best balance.

Three years after a new car is purchased, many people sell their vehicles when it's time for the first inspection, resulting in high-quality used cars entering the market. Prices typically drop to about 50-70% of the new car price.

After 5 years, prices drop even further, but most vehicles are still fully operational and roadworthy.

After 7 years or more, prices become quite affordable, but the risk of breakdowns also increases. Unless you're knowledgeable about cars or can handle maintenance yourself, it's better to consider carefully.

A: Generally, under 100,000 km is the guideline.

However, modern cars are highly durable, and many can run without issues even after exceeding 100,000 km.

What's important is to check not only the mileage but also the maintenance records. If the vehicle has been receiving regular oil changes and inspections, you can feel confident even if it has high mileage.

Conversely, even if the mileage is low, caution is needed for vehicles without maintenance records.

A: Generally, it's safer to avoid it.

A vehicle with repair history refers to a car whose structural components (frame) have been repaired due to an accident or other damage. Minor repairs may not be problematic, but depending on the extent of the repair, there is a possibility that driving performance and safety could be affected.

While vehicles with accident repair history are often cheaper, considering the risks involved, beginners should avoid them.

A: It depends on the model year and mileage.

For vehicles within 3 years old with low mileage, the risk of major breakdowns is low, so in many cases there are no issues even without a warranty.

On the other hand, for vehicles that are over 5 years old or have high mileage, it's more reassuring to have a warranty. In particular, failures in critical components such as the engine or transmission can result in expensive repair costs.

A: Considering the total payment amount, paying in cash upfront is more advantageous.

When you take out a loan, you incur interest payments, so the total amount paid will be higher than paying in cash upfront.

However, if you want to keep cash on hand or can take advantage of a low-interest rate campaign, a loan is also an option.

Additionally, taking out a loan has the advantage of allowing you to purchase a car one rank higher. Please make your decision based on your own situation.

Thank you for reading this lengthy article all the way through.

Finally, let's review the five key points introduced in this article.

Point 1: Seasonal/Monthly Price Drop Periods January-February, July-August, and November are the best times to buy. March has the highest prices, so it's best to avoid.

Point 2: 2026 Market Trends The EV shift is decelerating. Demand for gasoline and hybrid vehicles remains high. Market size continues to expand.

Point 3: Price Drop Patterns by Vehicle Type Luxury imported cars tend to depreciate quickly, while kei cars and hybrid vehicles maintain stable prices.

Point 4: Price Differences by Purchase Route Dealerships are reliable but more expensive. By utilizing auctions or bulk quote comparison sites, you may be able to purchase at a better price.

Point 5: Price Negotiation Techniques Timing and market data are your weapons. Reviewing various fees can save you 50,000 to 100,000 yen.

The used car market is projected to grow to $83 billion by 2030, with an ever-expanding range of options. Take your time and use the points covered in this article as a reference to find the perfect vehicle at the optimal timing.

Why not start by checking the market price of the vehicle model you're interested in on Cartree (https://cartree.jp/)? You can easily search and compare used car information from across the country, making it ideal for developing a sense of market prices.

We hope that your used car selection will be the first step toward a wonderful car life.